Opportunities

Each open market is recalibrated against its series' historical reliability curve; the edge is taken after crossing the bid/ask spread and paying the Kalshi fee, then sized with fractional Kelly. Only markets whose net edge is positive and clear the sample-size gate appear here. With lifecycle-aware on (default), recurring time-based markets are priced against the curve for where they are in their life now — the Whole-life column shows the old, often-stale edge for comparison. Sizing is additionally capped at each market's recently observed book depth (from the 15-minute order-book snapshots), shares one cash ledger, holds a reserve, and caps exposure across markets that settle from the same event.